What lies ahead? | economic letters #2
We are stuck in a vicious cyle, with all the ongoing crises and upheavals a part of it. But every breakdown is an opportunity for something new to arise.
#2
To fully understand this mess, we must ask ourselves what lies ahead.
There are two parts to this question. First, we can ask what we already know about what lies ahead. Second, we can ask ourselves what opportunities our current situation holds.
So, what lies ahead?
The dynamic we call climate change is already changing the environmental basis of our livelihoods and societies. This dynamic will increase and evolve so much that it outdates the models we use to predict it. knowledge, we think we gained to understand and control the situation, will be of small value.
Central ecological systems will be even further destroyed. There is no recognizable change in the patterns and structures that feed this destruction. Instead, the rise of technologies like AI increases the demand for, and the exploitation of, natural resources and energy. All of this puts growing pressure on all societies.
The inner tension in our societies and communities continues to rise, too. We see polarization, growing violence and state repression, the rise of autocratic governments in democracies, increasing social inequality and refugee movements, and the inability of the political sphere to solve this.
The inner contradictions of our societies are becoming more and more apparent: all our governments, democratic and non-democratic, are built on the exclusion and marginalization of a large part of the population, such as women, those who are facing poverty, and refugees. Western countries, in particular, are trying to solve these contradictions by exporting them to unstable regions, like we do with garbage. But that leads to more instability: the external change and internal tensions are tightly connected in the sense that they feed each other.
To summarize: We are stuck in a vicious cycle, and all the crises, upheavals, and transitions we are facing right now are part of it.
And what is the opportunity, that lies ahead?
When a storm blows through a forest, the resulting scene may look like one of devastation. In fact, it is a fruitful situation in which something new arises. What had been lying dormant, like seeds and little plants, now have light and space to grow and develop.
It’s no different with social structures. Every breakdown is an opportunity for something new to arise, simply because there’s a moment in time when all the old patterns and dynamics do not work more. So, the ongoing upheaval is a chance for us to reconstruct our communities and societies, rebuild them on healthy paradigms in accordance with nature and on a human scale, and create communities that invite everyone in and allow them to fulfill their potential and live a meaningful life. The seeds are already there. What we need to do is to be prepared for the right moment. We need to have a clear vision of what kind of society we want to build and how we can use upheavals and transitions to create it.
We are in a mess. We have to deal with our mess. But how we deal is not defined. We can choose how to react, and how to act upon it. Do we see our mess as a crisis we aren’t able to solve? Or can we see the opportunity to build something new?